中国结合医学杂志（英文版）Chinese Journal of Integrative Medicine

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Correlation Analysis for the Attack of Bacillary Dysentery and Meteorological Factors Based on the Chinese Medicine Theory of Yunqi and the Medical-Meteorological Forecast Model

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KeyWord:bacillary dysentery, meteorological factors, Chinese medicine, the theory of Yunqi, back-propagation arti?cial neural net-work, medical-meteorological forecast model

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
MA Shi-lei, TANG Qiao-ling, LIU Hong-wei, HE Juan
GAO Si-hua	Department of Basic Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing (100029), China	gaosihua1216@163.com

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Abstract:

Objective: To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the outbreak of bacillary dysentery, so as to provide suggestions for disease prevention. Methods: Based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi, the descriptive statistics, single-factor correlation analysis and back-propagation arti?cial neural net-work were conducted using data on ?ve basic meteorological factors and data on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China, for the period .970–2004. Results: The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed significant positive correlation relationship with the precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and temperature, respectively. The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a negatively correlated relationship with the wind speed and the change trend of average wind speed. The results of medical-meteorological forecast model showed a relatively high accuracy rate. Conclusions: There is a close relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but the contributions of which to the onset of bacillary dysentery are different to each other.